My two cents-- for a long time I held at 200-205, moderate activity. Had not depended on activity/exercise to drop the weight, but the loss of the weight helped me get off the couch.

A couple years ago I worked ware house: fast paced,heavy lifting go faster-faster- faster-- just starving and cram my mouth full of food. And not gain.

THen boss moved me to a sedintary job-- just standing in a cubicle for 8-10 hrs a day. The pounds JUMPED on. In 2 months, TWENTY pounds heavier-- then back to the other job..... much harder with an extra 20. ANd not coming off.

Too many factors affect weight loss and maintenace to say exercise is the definative difference between sucesss and weight gain.