New Research Forecasts Low-Carbohydrate Market Surge in First Quarter of 2005
Tuesday December 28, 7:00 am ET

Over 25 Million Americans Are Projected to Be Following a Controlled-Carb Approach Like the Atkins Nutritional Approach(TM) According to Market Research

NEW YORK, Dec. 28 /PRNewswire/ -- Recent reports predicting the end of the low-carbohydrate "craze" seem to be mimicking reports of the end of the Internet after the dot-com crash in 2000, according to representatives of Atkins Nutritionals, Inc (ANI). "It's hard to remember, but there was a time when the experts were forecasting the end of Google, Amazon and Yahoo," said Colette Heimowitz, vice president of education and research, Atkins Health & Medical Information Services. "And it's just as difficult to understand why supposed experts seem compelled to label Atkins as a fad diet. Not many fad diets have the backing of 38 independent scientific studies, supporting its safety and effectiveness at controlling weight and reducing risk factors for serious health problems such as diabetes or cardiovascular disease. Fad diets will fade away, but people have been succeeding on Atkins for more than three decades."

The most current research comes from FRC and Opinion Dynamics, leading market research firms. Based on data from FRC, as of November 2004, 24 percent of adults in the United States were controlling carbs, with 82 percent of this population purchasing low-carb products. The research also showed that even the lapsed carb-controllers (22 percent of the population) still buy low-carb products, with 62 percent of them indicating that they purchase products.

"We identified a strong intent for this lifestyle during our research," explained Larry Shiman, vice president, Opinion Dynamics. "I would not be surprised if people come back to controlling carbs in January, after the holidays." Atkins Nutritionals, Inc., projects that 11 or 12 percent of Americans will be following a controlled-carb approach like Atkins in the first quarter of 2005. This is up from the current 8 percent measured in November.

Atkins Nutritionals, Inc., is anticipating a surge in sales from Q4 of 2004 to Q1 of 2005 to coincide with diet season trends. In a story this month in the New York Times, the ACNielsen company's LabelTrends report showed sales of products marketed as low carb grew 6 percent in a 13-week period ending September 25. The low-carb category continues to grow, even though the growth projections for 2005 do not mirror the double- and triple-digit growth rates seen in Q1 of 2004. However, these market fluctuations are indicative of an emerging market seeking level ground as it matures, and hardly communicate the demise of the low-carb category.

"The trend of those following a controlled-carb approach actually remained stable throughout 2004, with a dip in the fourth quarter, which is expected in any weight control category," stated Matt Wiant, senior vice president and chief marketing officer, Atkins Nutritionals, Inc. "We are confident that the large number of individuals currently following a controlled-carb lifestyle and those that are simply carb-conscious will likely fuel the purchase of low- carb products in 2005. Furthermore, research shows that, of those currently following a controlled-carb approach, 74 percent say that they will still be following it two years from now."

Importantly for consumers, recent research has demonstrated that low-carb products can be of great assistance in maintaining a lifestyle like the ANA. In one such study, it was found that subjects could more easily maintain an assigned level of daily carbohydrate intake when Atkins products were encouraged than in another study, where such products were restricted.(1-2) Another study found that the consumption of snacks with a high protein and low-carbohydrate composition could reduce food intake at their next meal by 5 percent and could significantly lower diurnal glucose and insulin levels.(3)

"The benefits of real low-carb products, like Atkins products, for a controlled-carb lifestyle have clearly been demonstrated," said Ms. Heimowitz. "Other low-carb products dropped in and out of the market because, in the rush to develop them, they did not meet the nutritional standards of a low-carb lifestyle. The products that truly emphasize better nutrition, by eliminating added sugar, corn syrup and hydrogenated oils, are the ones that will survive."

About the Atkins Nutritional Approach(TM) (ANA(TM))

The ANA is a scientifically validated nutritional strategy for weight control and better health based upon controlling carbohydrate consumption. This nutritional strategy stresses nutrient-dense carbohydrates as part of a balanced eating plan that includes a variety of protein and good fats, while restricting carbohydrates that have the greatest impact on blood sugar. The ANA provides each person with the information they need to find their individual level of carbohydrate intake, below which weight loss is achieved and above which weight gain occurs.

1. Westman, E.C., Yancy, W.S., Edman, J.S., et. al., "Effect of 6-Month Adherence to a Very Low Carbohydrate Diet Program," American Journal of Medicine, 2002, 113(1), pages 30-36.

2. Stern, L., Iqbal, N., Seshadri, P., et. al., "The Effects of Low- Carbohydrate Versus Conventional Weight Loss Diets in Severely Obese Adults: One-Year Follow-up of a Randomized Trial," Annals of Internal Medicine, 2004, 140(10), pages 778-785.

3. Noakes, M., Paul, F., Keogh, J., et. al., "High Protein Snack Bars Can Reduce Food Intake and Improve Glucose and Insulin Metabolism in Overweight Women," Abstract presented at the North American Association for the Study of Obesity's Annual Meeting, November 14-18, 2004 in Las Vegas, Nevada, Obesity Research, 12(S), 2004, page A55.

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Lets hope Atkins is right!

I think the low carb products problem is more serious. The stores are not just selling less low carb products, they are selling alot more low fat products now than they have been last year.

Last year when the low fat ice cream and low fat cheese cakes started to appear, I was thinking that nobody is going to buy them. Now I see that they are expanding while the low carb products are disappearing.

Well I for one will stock up on any LC things I use now, although that's only a few things for me, like LC ketchup and some Splenda. I predict that a lot of people will try Atkins for their New Year's resolution.